Duterte v Marcos: Inside the impeachment shaking that is Philippine politics

MANILA – Political dynasties have long shaped the Philippines, where alliances can matter as much as policy. So when the country’s two most powerful families joined political forces in 2022 – with Mr Ferdinand Marcos Jr as president and Ms Sara Duterte as vice-president – a new era of stable politics looked promising. 

But the honeymoon did not last.

The two fell out over key policies and, in 2024, Ms Duterte was accused of plotting the assassination of Mr Marcos. She was subsequently impeached in 2025, though the country’s top court later voided the case on procedural grounds. Just over a year later, on May 11, Ms Duterte was impeached again.

The fallout could be significant. Ms Duterte is widely expected to be a leading contender in the 2028 presidential election, following in her father’s footsteps, and the impeachment could derail her potential bid.

It also adds uncertainty in an economy already grappling with a major corruption scandal and surging inflation linked to the Middle East conflict.

Why was Ms Duterte impeached?

On May 11, Ms Duterte became the first Philippine politician to be impeached twice. 

The grounds largely mirror those of the first case, including earlier allegations that she threatened the life of the President. During a November 2024 press briefing, she told reporters she had made arrangements for Mr Marcos, his wife Liza, and his cousin, then House Speaker Martin Romualdez, to be killed if she herself were assassinated. 

Similar to the previous impeachment, lawmakers have accused her of misusing public funds, amassing unexplained wealth, failing to disclose all her properties and interests, and distributing monetary gifts to officials.

She has denied any wrongdoing. Her legal team says the burden of proof lies with her accusers and that they are prepared to contest the accusations in a Senate trial.

What happened to her last impeachment?

Ms Duterte was impeached by allies of Mr Marcos in the House of Representatives in 2025.

However, the Supreme Court later invalidated the impeachment on procedural grounds, ruling that it violated a constitutional safeguard prohibiting more than one impeachment proceeding against the same official within a one-year period. The case was based on the fourth complaint filed against her.

What makes her impeachment so significant? 

The fallout between Ms Duterte and Mr Marcos has escalated into an open power struggle. 

Ms Duterte and her allies say the impeachment is politically motivated and aimed at derailing her potential bid in the 2028 presidential election. 

That makes the case a potentially decisive turning point.

A conviction by the Senate, which acts as the impeachment court, would remove her from office and bar her from holding future government posts, including the presidency. Even the trial itself – where the allegations will be publicly scrutinised – could damage her profile and dent her popularity.

The turmoil is also weighing on investor sentiment at a time when the Philippines is already facing economic headwinds, including the fallout from a multibillion-peso corruption scandal tied to flood-control projects.

Prolonged instability at the top of government risks complicating efforts to attract foreign investment.

Beyond domestic politics, the impeachment carries regional implications. Ms Duterte is perceived as relatively more China-friendly in a country that’s traditionally aligned with the US. Mr Marcos, by contrast, has been pushing back against China’s claims in the South China Sea and has leaned more heavily on Washington for support.

What are the next steps in the impeachment process?

Under the Constitution, members of the Senate will serve as judges in the case, with a two-thirds vote required to convict Ms Duterte. 

But a conviction is far from certain. Ms Duterte’s allies have staged a surprise takeover of the Senate leadership, potentially improving her chances of acquittal. If she is cleared, she would remain in office, and it could even bolster her potential presidential run.

If Ms Duterte is convicted, she would be removed from office and disqualified from holding future government posts, including the presidency. In that case, Mr Marcos would appoint a new vice-president, subject to approval from both the House and the Senate.

Another possibility is that Ms Duterte resigns before the Senate reaches a verdict.

This would cut short her term as vice-president but could also allow her to avoid disqualification from future office – although some lawmakers argue the impeachment court could still bar her from public office even if she steps down. BLOOMBERG